PA Bill Number: HB777
Title: In firearms and other dangerous articles, further providing for definitions and providing for the offense of sale of firearm or firearm parts without ...
Description: In firearms and other dangerous articles, further providing for definitions and providing for the offense of sale of firearm or firearm parts without ...
Last Action: Referred to JUDICIARY
Last Action Date: Apr 12, 2024
Math errors in the Washington Post Evaluation of Trump's claim: "murder rate has experienced its largest increase in 45 years" :: 12/10/2016
“On crime, the murder rate has experienced its largest increase in 45 years,” Trump told the crowd. “We are going to support the incredible men and women of law enforcement, and we are going to bring this terrible crime wave to an end. Highest in 45 years, the murder rate.” . . .
It is true that the percentage increase in number of murders from 2014 to 2015 was the highest in 45 years. The number of murders jumped by 10.2 percent over that period, the highest jump since 1971, when the number of murders went up by 11.1 percent.
But the increase in the number of murders was only the largest since 1990. There were 1,447 more murders in 2015 than in 2014. Between 1989 and 1990, the figure increased by 1,938. At the time, that was only a 9 percent increase in the number of murders, because there were a lot more murders. In terms of the actual number of murders, 2015 saw the highest figure since … 2008. . . .
The murder percentage increase in the murder rate in 2015 matched that of 1979 — going back 36 years. The actual rate, though, was exceeded in 2009, within the presidency of Barack Obama. . . .
From Philip Bump at The Fix, December 7, 2016 (Bold added)
This discussion in the Washington Post analyzes Trump’s statement in terms of the percentage increase in the murder rate or the percent increase in the total number of murders. Trump is clear that he is referring to the murder rate, but in both cases the Washington Post is incorrect. An Excel file is available here and the raw data is available here. Over the last 45 years, the percent increase in the murder rate was indeed the largest between 2014 and 2015 (about a half a percentage point more than the increase from 1970 to 1971). As to the percent increase in murders, the only the increase from 1970 to 1971 was larger than the increase from 2014 to 2015 (11.1% to 10.8%). While the most likely interpretation of Trump’s statement is in terms of percent increases, as the Washington Post also notes, one can also look at the the increase in total murders. But if the statement was in terms of the largest increase in murders, it has been a little while since there were larger increases (26 years), but there were larger increases in 1990, 1986, 1980, 1979, and 1971.
